top of page
IF YOU WERE IN THE ROOM
Back It. Build It. Exit It.
Scaling Ventures Across the Atlantic. A companion piece to the EBAN Congress 2026 keynote.
Tuesday, 2 June 2026 · EBAN Congress · Radisson Blu Hotel Lietuva · Vilnius
THE THESIS
European angels have a structural advantage in the AI era because AI commoditizes execution and elevates judgment.
For thirty years, Silicon Valley's structural advantage was concentration. Capital. Talent. Distribution. Engineering density. Speed. AI weakens all five.
A founder in Vilnius now has access to capabilities that used to require entire teams. Code generation. Design. Research. Distribution. Operations. Execution gets cheaper. Which means discernment gets more valuable.
The problem with AI is not that it makes weak founders stronger. It is that it makes weak judgment harder to detect.
In the AI era, judgment becomes infrastructure.
The Atlantic is the test.
THE NAMED PRACTICE
The Right Question.
What can only we see, from here, that the Americans cannot see from there.
In venture capital, the right question matters more than the right answer. The answers always change. The market changes. The product changes. The technology changes. What matters is whether the founder keeps asking the right questions through the pivots.
How do you know if it is the right question? It earns a pause. The founder takes a beat before answering. If they answer instantly with a polished line, you have not asked the right one yet.
THE FRAMEWORK
Back It. Build It. Exit It.
Three acts. Three disciplines. One angel investor's operating system for the AI era.
Back it.
TASTE
The discipline of recognizing the founder whose judgment compounds. Conviction before consensus. The filter AI cannot replicate.
Build it
TRUST
Presence is the European angel's structural trust advantage. You are at the dinner. You are at the coffee. You see them before the polish.
Exit it.
INCENTIVES
Every exit is written at Series A. Most founders think dilution kills returns. Misaligned incentives kill far more.
THE CORE THESIS CRYSTALLIZED
AI commoditizes execution. The Human Premium compounds.
The team is AI. This is not the future of startups. This is the present.
What is the future of venture when a founder can scale to one point eight billion in revenue with no employees, no capital, and a profit margin above thirty percent? The unit economics of the entire asset class are being rewritten. Capital used to be the differentiator. In the AI era, capital is the commodity.
If Matthew can do this in Los Angeles, your founders can do it in Vilnius. In Tallinn. In Berlin. In London. AI did not give this capability to Silicon Valley. AI gave it to anyone with judgment.
The one-person billion-dollar company is not the future. It is the floor.
Discipline before abundance just stopped being a European handicap. It became the moat.
THE THREAD UNDER EVERYTHING
Resilience.
IN THE AI ERA
Resilience is not resisting change. It is keeping your judgment intact while everything else changes around you.
Execution accelerates. But exits still take seven to ten years. The incentives you structure today have to survive technologies, markets, and geopolitical shifts we cannot fully predict yet. That is resilience. Alignment under pressure.
THE FRAMEWORK ON THE PAGE (HELD IN RESERVE FROM THE TALK)
The Trust Audit.
Three stages, one through-line. Questions are the spine.
Before the check
Ask the right questions.
The right question earns a pause. If they answer instantly with a
polished line, ask again.
After the check
Show up. Proximity sharpens the next question.
You will only know what to ask in Year Three if you were in the room in Year One.
At every milestone
Keep asking. Build mechanisms. Stay aligned.
Trust is the relationship. Mechanisms are the architecture. You need both.
Be present when the team needs you. Earn trust so deeply that even when they could screw you over, they won 't. And put the mechanisms in place anyway.
THE 3 BY 3
Read all three centers.
Before you can have alignment with founders, alignment with co-investors, alignment with a term sheet, you must have alignment with yourself.
One question per center on stage. Five for each here. Develop your own.
HEAD · THE DATA
What would have to be true for this team to win on both sides of the Atlantic, and how certain am I?
i. What is the strongest argument against this bet that I am ignoring?
ii. What would have to break for this to be a zero?
iii. What does the data not yet show that I am betting will be true?
iv. If the technology shifts tomorrow, what survives?
HEART · THE RELATIONSHIP
How much do I care about this team and this problem, and can I commit to caring about them for the next decade?
i. Do I respect this founder enough to follow them through three pivots?
ii. If they called me at 2 AM on a bad day, would I show up?
iii. Am I in because I believe in them, or because everyone else is?
iv. Will I still be proud of this bet in ten years?
GUT · THE SIGNAL
What is my body telling me, and am I looking outside myself for the answer?
i. Did I find a reason to say yes, or a reason not to say no?
ii. If I had to commit tomorrow, would I do it without seeking permission?
iii. What is my body telling me when I read the deck the second time?
iv. Whose phone do I call first if this goes wrong?
If all three are a strong yes, you have conviction. Take the risk.
If only one or two are a strong yes, gather more information.
If time does not permit, the answer is no.
THE OPERATING SYSTEM
Four moves.
Take these out of the room. Use them next quarter.
i.
Delay your yes.
Precision beats speed. A fourty-eight-hour close is not scarcity. It is a tell.
ii.
Design your room.
Three to five people who sharpen your judgment. If they are not sharpening, they are softening.
iii.
Earn your seat.
A check gets you in. The job starts after the wire clears. Founders remember who showed up.
iv.
Write better incentives.
Every term is behavior, encoded. Same founder. Different incentives. Different company.
THE LINES THAT TRAVEL
From the keynote.
Information is free. Judgment is expensive.
THESIS
I did not fund Calm. Calm did not exist. I funded the judgment that would find Calm.
BUILD IT · TRUST
Most founders think dilution kills returns. Misaligned incentives kill far more.
EXIT IT
Resilience in the AI era is not resisting change. It is keeping your judgment intact while everything else changes around you.
RESILIENCE
AI commoditizes execution. The Human Premium compounds.
CORE THESIS · SLIDE 08
For the twenty years I have been angel investing, access was the moat. In the AI era, trust becomes the moat.
BUILD IT · PILLAR CLOSE
The one-person billion-dollar company is not the future. It is the floor.
THE HUMAN PREMIUM
Presence. Trust. Taste.
BRAND TRIAD · SLIDE 10
AI right now is my Detroit 2010. Are you willing to be wrong, in public, for eight years?
BACK IT · TASTE
Every exit is written at Series A.
EXIT IT
Discipline before abundance just stopped being a European handicap. It became the moat.
THE HUMAN PREMIUM
Is it code you would be proud to live inside?
CLOSE QUESTION
STAY CLOSE
Choose your door.
I spend most of my time in a small number of rooms where capital, technology, and human judgment are colliding. If your fund, your founders, or your next stage needs that translation across the Atlantic, in either direction, here is where to find me.
Most people need strategy. A smaller number need judgment under pressure.
STAY CLOSE
FOR CO-INVESTMENT
bottom of page